President Xi of China did not waste time to launch his activities centered around building alliances with current or former USA allies.
China the second powerful nation economically after the USA is challenging the world’s unipolar dominance. So far China has done a good job expanding its influence around the world economically, however the last actions, sponsoring a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, then the visit of President Xi to Moscow, show that the Chinese leadership has gone on the offensive geopolitically.
Considering the twelve points of the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran it seems that Iran, has given‐in to the conditions stated by Saudi Royalty; MBS in particular. The trial period of sixty days before re‐establishing diplomatic relations, or continue these conversations, seems like a warning to Iran’s ullahs. Past experiences in the region taught us to take Iran’s promises with question marks.
The distinction this time is the Chinese sponsorship. China is a main buyer of Iran oil while sanctions are in place, and China is the main investor in Iran’s infrastructure and the rebuilding of a country abandoned by regime, wasting resources in interventions in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon.
The main questions regarding this détente are: Can China afford wasting its prestige sponsoring such an agreement and let the Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards dictate the outcome?
China has hit the jackpot with this deal, having access to Saudi Oil production and the opportunity to invest in the ambitions plan of the heir to throne Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS). Will President Xi jeopardize this arrangement and Iran’s dishonesty?
China will not take NO for an answer from Iran, the pressure is ongoing on the Iranian regime from China, and from the internal pressure following the uprising against the Mullahs.
Iran has sixty days to show good intentions, MBS will not budge on the conditions.
As for the visit of President Xi to Moscow the USA has warned China against supplying Russia with lethal weapons, however, we are not expecting the Chinese to take American warning into consideration specially if they deem it strategically necessary to bind the defense alliance with Russia, North Korea, and Iran, followed by an economic alliance that adds India, Brazil, and other nations to the mix.
China has an advantage over the USA with its geopolitical expansion. Governments that are “Social Democrats” when they are authoritarian, prefer alliances with partners not meddling in their internal affairs. China does not raise the issue of human rights or civil rights with any of its allies or adversaries. Russia supports authoritarian regimes around the world. Both countries find the issue of human rights and civil rights on bottom of their strategic lists.
The priorities of the US administration and its European allies are “Climate Change” and “Human Right” respectively. Unfortunately, the west will not be able to lift impoverished nations; from Central and South America, from Africa to east Asia, from undeveloped, to developing, or developed nations.
It defies the human rights claim keeping underdeveloped nations without a route map to prosperity opening the door to countries like China and Russia to take advantage of the situation.
It defies the climate change claim impatiently imposing restrictions without letting the developments of renewable energies take its course, ignoring that east Asia is the main polluter currently mainly China without addressing the pollution from that side of the globe.
We have entered into the era of two major alliances globally, Mr. Xi is leading the change, we will see more of his expansion shortly.